With the rapid economic recovery hopes growing, pre-funding of risky assets over into dangerous situations. Reflect its current price has been too rapid economic growth, leverage is expected to bring up this kind of effect spread to global markets. Recent data further show that if the major economies slow growth or even recession, then the investor mindset change will make the risk of market decline further expand on a global scale. The accelerated flow of capital, will make easier or difficult to bond yields rose.

The Fed has declared that if the economic outlook has deteriorated, and will consider taking further regulatory incentives is that the resumption of quantitative easing monetary policy. The degree of incentive stock and commodity prices rebound.

If the quantitative easing post-crisis the market is a shot in the arm, then after a lapse of two years after the old trick is as good as the wake-up call. Soon after the excitement because people will find this actually means that the policy of the past and did not receive the desired effect, people turn to reconsider the move and stimulate the economy into a “coma,” the risk of speaking, which is on the market seriously affected. People tend to awaken the latter soon. Importantly, this matter is for professional investors and ordinary investors are obvious, that the use of information asymmetry to the hype hard to succeed.

General view is that too much money invested in turn will lead to a rapid increase in inflation of asset prices, but this may be different. The past, the main benefits of capital gains as the source of risk assets, Zai healthy economic growth in time is no problem, Dan lose the economic fundamentals of the Zhi Cheng, Qi Jiang price transmission interrupted in Shiti economic level Pi. The pace of economic recovery slowed down or even recession once again, will make the overvalued asset prices lose their support, the final collapse of the inevitable, the same inflation will be suppressed.

Since the last two years the risk of high asset price fluctuations are related, whether the stock, commodities (energy, raw materials, agricultural products) Haishi fixed assets, future Kongpa will experience a significant drop again, or even into a long slump, as reflected in the currency on is the Japanese yen, the dollar continued to strengthen. All this will in turn exert a negative impact on the real economy, both managers or investors should be alert to this.

Changes in the market initially in China, then to the United States, and then transfer to the world.

China’s first global launch of the reason is that a closed capital market less vulnerable to the direct impact of global hot money, which could reflect investor expectations.

For China, the length of the continued narrowing of interest rate trends should be alert, although there are categories in which the rhythm of the transfer factor in asset allocation, but it also indicates a high short-term inflation, while investors Kan looked down upon long-term economic growth (and inflation) If this situation continues, it means increased risk of significant economic slowdown; another kind of expected that with the disappearance of CPI hikes resulted, and the central bank increased the risk of economic slowdown and the appropriate relaxation of credit, short-end bond products yields may again decline; of course, extremely optimistic scenario is that economic growth was no fear of rapidly rising inflation in order to guide interest rates, then bond yields rose sharply and the stock market rises – but the possibility that this can happen less expected.

Integrated data from internal and external point of view, it would not be higher bond market as quickly as people expected the end of the major economies, decision-making authorities are actively discussing how to expand the incentives rather than monetary tightening, which makes the decrease in yield the situation may remain in effect until at least the first quarter of next year and beyond.

If so, then the domestic stock market will continue to decline, while the bond market, but will continue to pursue and ultimately where the real yield spreads bubble.

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