Future U.S. Economic Policy-making Process

As Orszag, Romer and Summers, who has out, the focus of the Obama economic team will Geithner tilt, the latter in the formulation of future U.S. economic policy will play a more important process role, but also means Geithner under more pressure than in the past. Promote the U.S. economy, detailed financial reform program, break the “two rooms” dilemma and the Chinese game on the currency issue, the pieces are like Geithner is it impossible to complete the task.

As early as first assumed office, President Geithner for Barack Obama to become the Republican Party to attract dynamic “human target” that the U.S. printing of speculation that he will be the first one in the Obama cabinet “sacrifices.” Republican congressman from Texas, Kevin Brady had a hearing on Geithner said, “the public has lost the ability to work for you all the confidence,” Geithner also asked bluntly whether to resign . Another Republican congressman Michael Burgess of the evaluation Genghen Geithner: “I do not think you should resign, I think you simply will not be employed in the.” Resignation in Summers, the Republican House of Representatives leaders once again called on Obama to fire John Bernal Geithner and Summers, said the two on the U.S. economy not only reactive but also before. U.S. leading news website “moderators” have to “kill the U.S. economy in Geithner before his expulsion,” as the title says, Geithner is a “black sheep”, he insisted that the president had the implementation of 862 billion U.S. dollars in stimulus package Today, the economy did not pick up all the money so that he wasted light; Geithner meritorious claims government bailout of real estate, everyone knows, the U.S. house prices stop difficult.

The face of Republican criticism and questioned the American people, Geithner strongly disagree, and never retreated. Republicans pointed out in answer to the economic problems in poor condition, Geithner said tit for tat, it is the Republican Party to the present government has left a U.S. economy already fallen off a cliff, so “I can not on your ‘estate’ responsibility.” Should save the face of American International Group, the question, Geithner said the government measures taken to end the financial panic is necessary, without these measures, the U.S. economy will still down among not have the growth. Geithner also even behind the White House, saying that in the past two years to fully display their talent, including the economic stimulus plan, financial regulatory reform bill and a series of measures have helped reshape the American economy and reconstruction of financial order.

Currently, Geithner placed in front of the primary task is to help Obama find a natural to continue to stimulate the U.S. economy forward solution.

With the gradual loss of effectiveness of the stimulus plan, the U.S. economy is slowing down the pace of recovery, GDP growth rate from 5.6% in the fourth quarter of last year, dropped sharply in the first quarter of this year’s 1.9 percent, a revised second quarter was only 1.6% . The “Dr. Doom,” said economist Nouriel Roubini at New York University sent the words in the third quarter, U.S. economic growth certainly reduced to below 1%. Faced with this situation, the administration needs to do is to re-inject momentum for the economy. On the one hand, Obama announced a plan to double the export of so-called, and to assist the weak dollar policy to practice, hoping to use export-led economy, on the other hand, he recently launched a three fiscal stimulus proposal, both on railways, highways, aviation and other infrastructure and maintenance of the new strategy, but also involves R & D and equipment investment tax incentives and other content, estimated investment of 3,500 billion U.S. dollars. In addition, Obama will return to the attention of the middle class who, through a series of relief measures to help them keep their homes and jobs. Obama did as a government, is to let the U.S. economy out of years has been to rely on consumer spending that is not sustainable over the power of growth by tapping new, changing the growth mode of the U.S. economy to achieve its build “rock of house “idea. From the current point of view, the Obama economic team to explore all the returns have not yet brought about substantial, and consumer spending this root “backbone” has also been overwhelmed. Therefore, as Finance Minister, Mr Geithner will inevitably have to shelter for Obama in the national front to make a reasonable explanation.

How to advance the U.S. financial regulatory reform bill, is placed in Geithner’s a “litmus test.” Although the bill finally signed into law, but down to the implementation of a long way to go, Geithner is not only to strengthen financial regulation, systemic risk to the purpose of carrying out the implementation level, but also from Wall Street to meet rebound. It is reported that some well-known investment bank has established a large lobbying group, want to refine the bill implementing agencies induced spared. Other analysts believe that the view from the past experience, Geithner and Wall Street tacit, sparing no effort to save Wall Street when it was the regulatory leniency, so worried about Wall Street were performed with a “Zhuofang Cao.” There is also a heart that is “Freddie Mac” and “Fannie Mae” These two actually supported by the U.S. government can barely functioning mortgage finance institutions, Ministry of Finance, the American people want to come up with a complete solution, But Geithner, its difficult par with the care of economic recovery.

In addition, the RMB exchange rate, Geithner have to make painful choices. As testimony to Congress in mid-September when it was, Geithner also criticized the one hand, the slow pace of yuan appreciation, appreciation of the very limited extent, on the other hand have to admit, the RMB appreciation will not erase the U.S. global trade deficit and the U.S. trade deficit, while emphasizing China’s growth on U.S. growth. Basically, Geithner also acknowledged the United States should take more action to strengthen their economies. These words, precisely reflect the political interests of the United States Government and the wavering between economic rationality, while Table Minggaitena both want to continue to put pressure on China in order to accelerate the pace of yuan appreciation, but also do not want to take too strong, but also ineffective means of , cast a shadow over the U.S. trade with China.

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