Japanese Stocks Likely to Continue Falling
Japanese government intervention in currency markets since the attitude of uncertainty, the Tokyo stock market continued to weaken on the 24th. The Nikkei 225 index fell below the psychological barrier of 9,000 points and low points see 8983.5 15-month low, down 1.34% to 8995 the final point. After hours, the Tokyo Stock Exchange Chairman Saito London urgent appeal, the Japanese government must take action to reduce the market continued higher on concerns about the yen.
24 Asian foreign exchange markets, the yen continued strength against other major currencies, the euro exchange rate against the yen hit 106.15 yen, as in November 2001, the lowest level since. The dollar was lower against the yen through 85 yen mark, the lowest see 84.14 yen, refresh the exchange rate at the Aug. 11 record of 84.72 yen the lowest in 15 years. 24 pm, Japanese Finance Minister wild Tianjia Yan said, the recent trend of yen appreciation trend clearly showed unilateral, excessive and disorderly foreign exchange market volatility will have a negative impact to the Japanese economy.
Japanese shares significant negative correlation between the yen
Excluding other external factors, Japanese stocks and negative correlation between the yen has been particularly evident in the recent. Unfortunately, the weakness in Japanese stocks and the yen’s strength of this negative correlation seems to clouding the outlook for Japan’s economic recovery. Data show that, as of August 24, the Nikkei 225 index has fallen about 15% this year, and the distance of its highest this year, 11,408 points, down about 21%. Analysts believe that Japan’s stock market has entered a bear market. Also, according to Bloomberg correlation weighted currency index, the yen gained 15 percent this year, for the developed economies, the currency has appreciated the most.
Saito London in 24 regular press conference, said, “Personally, I do not like the idea of foreign intervention, but the government needs to take action to control market volatility.” He said the government should have the ability to convey market intervention when necessary information, the foreign exchange market movements should not be determined solely by market forces. Finally, he warns, the Nikkei 225 index level indicates the current status of the Japanese economy, the Japanese economy is in crisis.
Earlier, Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan and the central line of Shirakawa Fang Ming carried out at 23, 15-minute conference call, but the two sides did not disclose the intention to intervene in currency markets, making the market rather disappointed. Analysts said the delay in the Japanese government and central bank foreign exchange market intervention approach that is frustrated that the main reason for market confidence.
Xiao-Jun Wang macro strategist at National Securities said that the current economic situation may make the Japanese government and central bank intervention in the pace of acceleration. However, the current global economic situation is not clear, the United States and Europe appear gradually deflation expectations, even if the Japanese government and central bank intervention in currency markets to the joint, the degree of difficulty than from 2000 to 2006 a large number of interventions and the need for the policy the United States and other countries with.
Japanese stocks will continue to lower or
Tachibana Securities, said Kenichi Hirano, operating officer, investors seem to have given up the meaning of resistance, people just waiting to see Japan’s stock market could fall more deeply in the end. He said that the market entered a bear phase. The Nikkei is expected the new support in the 8750 point. In addition, market participants also believe that hedge funds and foreign investors selling Japanese stocks hit the Nikkei 225 index fell to 9000 points, who today are the following, investors will cause individual investors to panic selling.
An asset management company up to asset allocation team, while competent rock Hang told Chinese Securities News interviewed said that for the Japanese and global stock markets, although some high-dividend stock price is underestimated because of its has some defensive nature, but the relevant stock index will continue to hover at low levels, because the global economic outlook remains unclear, but the political future of the United States before mid-term elections have a lot of uncertainty. He predicted that the Nikkei 225 index in the next three months of the trading range for the 8500 points to 11500 points.
Data show that the Tokyo stock market on the 24th trading downturn, trading volume is only 1.5 billion shares, below the monthly average of 1.7 billion shares of trading volume, or the highest level during the year half of 3.2 billion shares. Saito London said the low trading volume of more immediate concern is the exchange, “If we do nothing, the funds are not automatically flow into the stock market.” He added that enterprises should take measures to buy back its own shares through mergers and acquisitions or engage in activities to attract more investors to admission.
JP Morgan, head of Japanese equity research Jesper Cole said that in the global economy “V” shaped recovery period, the Japanese enterprises in improving market share and profitability has done very well, corporate sales have also been very significant The increase, which has become a Japanese-owned enterprises in the case of the yen remain strong profit growth rate of the main reasons. In addition, from the perspective of the future earnings prospects, the current Japanese Topix index, the average price-earnings ratio is about 13-14 times, at a very low level, so that Japan’s stock market now has a good return on investment prospects.
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