The chief economist to the Bank of England (BoE), Spencer Dale, has continued to argue for a base rate rise sooner rather than later. He has argued that inflationary pressures require a rate rise as soon as possible to remain under control. This is true for individuals and companies with savings, however those who are borrowing will be negatively affected by a base rate rise.

The economy as a whole is fragile, he admits, but believes that inflation is a higher priority and requires immediate action. Some may agree but it would seem as though he is in the minority on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), as he was only one of three members, out of nine, that voted for an increase of the base rate last month.

This could be due to a divergence in opinion on how best to tackle the challenges that we face as an economy and indeed lowering the rate of inflation. Contractor mortgage borrowers will have a heightened alertness to potential changes in the base rate, but the BoE are still on track for a gradual increase of base rate to 3% in 2014, so an immediate rise in the base rate seems unlikely.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) has recorded a 14% decline in gross mortgage lending in April. The estimates fell from £11.4bn in March to £9.8bn in April but much of this can be attributed to seasonal demand changes.

Even the 5% drop in gross mortgage lending, as measured between April last year and this year, cannot be used to determine a trend as we had an unusually high amount of time off this year.
CML chief economist, Bob Pannell, commented:

\”Statistical noise, associated with extended holidays around Easter and the royal wedding, makes it harder to read the immediate market situation. This represents an unfortunate temporary loss of signal, at a time when it would be useful to gauge the resilience of house purchase demand to economic uncertainties and the pressure on household incomes.\”

\”Levels of activity look set to remain broadly flat over the near-term. It now seems unlikely that interest rates will rise much, if at all, this year and this should help keep the market on an even keel.\”

The markets remaining flat can produce levels of stability that are appealing to contractor mortgage borrowers. The markets do look flat but this remains a vague prediction as we wait for May’s lending data.
Brokers were questioned by the lender and it seemed that 38% believed a rate rise would come in September or October, also 11% believed that we would see a rate rise next month. This is odd as historically we have usually seen rate rises in months when the inflation report is due, which is next in August and then again in November.

Those would be my guesses as to when we would see a rate rise. Only 5% did not expect a rate rise this year, most were expecting an incremental increase that would see the rate reach 2% by the start of 2013.

Head of sales for Halifax Intermediaries, Ian Wilson, commented:

\”Planning for base rate rises is a difficult balancing act … Whether it happens next month or right at the end of the year, those that are already planning for it have a chance to get ahead of the game.”

Contractor mortgage borrowers will have to decide upon the best course of action based on their borrowing needs. We have a wide variety of contractor mortgage options that are specially tailored to contractor’s needs. This will enable contractors to choose more freely, the best contractor mortgage for them.

Author Bio: Article written by Taj Kang, Associate Director at Contractor Mortgages Made EasyTo contact us regarding this article e-mail: media@contractormortgagesuk.com

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