China Faces a New Global Non-cooperative Era

The world is from the save the world economy out of the most serious financial crisis “cooperation” era into the new “non-cooperation” era. “Trade war” and “currency war” is a “non-cooperation” of the direct consequences.

Held just last weekend G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank communique said, agreed that “restraint of competitive currency devaluation,” developing “more determined by the market system of exchange rates reflect economic fundamentals.” But do not see the practice of specific measures.

Current currency war has just begun, and may long continue, until some of the major countries, especially the United States shows a clear long-term upward trend, or some long-standing concerns about the fundamentals, such as the outbreak of the debt problem.

In the “non-cooperation” era, two seemingly contradictory policies – “the second phase of quantitative easing (QE2)” and “fiscal restraint” – is expected to be the hottest term in 2011.

I believe that the United States as early as November of this year the second phase of the introduction of quantitative easing, but the scale will be very limited. Especially given the existence of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee members of the disagreement, such as whether the new policy of quantitative easing is necessary, quantitative easing is really effective, and whether there are other measures.

On the other hand, the United States will have to start the second quarter of 2011 to take austerity measures. EU’s overall leverage ratio is less than the U.S., the EU must in 2011 to implement strict austerity measures, but its quantitative easing will carefully continue to 2012.

For China and the U.S., despite frequent trade friction between China and the U.S., but the outbreak of a serious trade war between the two countries is unlikely, the judge is based on important economic strategies between the two countries relations, and cross-cutting deep interest. The two sides will complain loudly, but the action will exercise restraint. Moreover, as the U.S. economy and employment in 2011 the gradual recovery of trade friction between China and the U.S. will be significantly reduced. Not only will reduce trade friction, the author is also expected, given the twin deficits, the United States may be today or next year to remove certain restrictions on exports.

In the “trade war” is relatively restrained at the same time, “currency war” has just begun. In particular, as the world’s largest exporter of the renminbi currency, has once again become the center of national attention. Requirements of the international community to pressure of RMB appreciation in recent months is growing. In addition to the United States and the European Union, some emerging countries, like Brazil, has recently joined the camp, to revalue its currency.

In the U.S. mid-term elections, Obama faces huge domestic pressure on China to stop artificially low yuan. However, we believe that senior White House officials, the U.S. Treasury and the Chinese authorities on bilateral economic and strategic importance of the relationship between a consensus and do not overreact. United States needs China as well as Iran and North Korea the issue of global climate change agreement for cooperation and support. China is also the largest creditor. If China is selling U.S. bonds, U.S. interest rates and the risk premium would bring considerable pressure.

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