First half of 2010, China’s GDP growth rate gradually declined, while Western countries continue to spread in Europe and the U.S. sovereign debt crisis of high unemployment and bad news. The slowdown in economic growth in China, Western countries are very disappointed the media in general, because the Western countries hope to accelerate the Chinese economy will pull out of Western economic quagmire. Bad news for the United States and Europe, there are some Chinese officials and scholars are disappointed because they had expected the rapid economic recovery in the West, thus driving China’s rapid economic recovery. In fact, neither side Zhiwangbushang each other.

Many people do not realize that the world faces a new situation: This is the Chinese and Western business cycle synchronization. China and Western countries before the economic cycle is not synchronized. Such as the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis, China was affected, and when the Internet bubble of the United States has not burst. Now the situation has changed, the first time in China and Western countries the case of business cycle synchronization, the two sides is almost the same time the economic bubble inflated to peak, and then almost simultaneously broken.

In addition, during the first half of this year, double-digit growth China’s economy largely relies on export and cars, but in the second half, exports, and the car probably will be passed their prime. The first half of this year, China’s exports rose 35.2%, but the main short-term factors. Such as the vertex of the financial crisis, many foreign companies as reduced inventory, and now the financial crisis is over vertices, we need to replenish stocks. Another example is the adjustment of export tax rebate policy gradually take effect in the second half, many foreign companies are rushing in before the commencement of the new policy the import of Chinese products. In the second half, due to additional inventory to complete the export tax rebate policy adjustment and exchange rate appreciation is estimated that China’s exports will slow down noticeable. The first half of this year, as one of the pillar industries of China’s economic output and sales growth in the automobile industry very quickly, but the yield was much more than sales, inventories of motor vehicles has grown rapidly, which will certainly cause a lot of pressure in the second half of the automotive industry. So, this year, China’s economic growth will slow.

Meanwhile, Western countries many people do not understand the financial crisis before the severity of economic overheating in China. From 2003 to 2008, real growth rate of China’s economy an unprecedented 6 consecutive years over the potential growth rate, which in 2007 reached 14.4% real growth. Such growth is not sustainable, certainly need to be adjusted, and the best adjustment is a soft landing. Therefore, the world can not expect a soft landing for the Chinese economy in the process to support the global economy.

As a developing country, during the financial crisis was not true with a lot of flattery, do everything for China to contribute to this crisis, the world’s second largest economy, China has not led the world’s economic strength China leg to stand on.

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